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Commercial QuarterlyHistorical backfill

1 July 2026

APRIQ Commercial Quarterly — June quarter 2026

Higher rates met resilient leasing, sharp city-level office divergence and active capital allocation across industrial, office and retail in the June quarter.

Commercial evidence state

Historical Commercial coverage before APRIQ’s dedicated Commercial acquisition programme is incomplete. This edition establishes the archive position honestly rather than reconstructing transactions from memory.

Context

Macro, planning, population, approvals and residential demand evidence may provide context, but APRIQ does not relabel them as commercial transaction evidence.

Quarter in brief

Commercial property did not move as one market in the June quarter. Brisbane office and industrial demand remained comparatively firm, Melbourne office vacancy was materially weaker, and higher debt costs continued to shape investment and development decisions.

What happened during the quarter

Material developments that were published during the quarter:

  • The Monetary Policy Board increased the cash rate target by 25 basis points to 4.35% on 5 May 2026. — Reserve Bank of Australia.
  • The May increase was the third cash-rate increase of 2026. — Reserve Bank of Australia.
  • The RBA left the cash rate target unchanged at 4.35% on 16 June 2026. — Reserve Bank of Australia.
  • The RBA said financial conditions had tightened following three cash-rate increases during 2026. — Reserve Bank of Australia.
  • Annual CPI inflation was 4.0% in May 2026. — Australian Bureau of Statistics.
  • Housing prices within the CPI basket were 6.5% higher than a year earlier. — Australian Bureau of Statistics.
  • Trimmed mean inflation was 3.6% over the year to May. — Australian Bureau of Statistics.

Office

Shows national office occupancy, rental and capital-market direction for the completed quarter.

Adds city-level divergence and identifies Brisbane as the strongest office demand market in JLL's monitored set.

  • National CBD vacancy edged from 14.8% to 14.9% over the first half of 2026. — CBRE Australia.
  • Australian CBD prime effective rents rose 1.8% quarter on quarter and 7.2% year on year in Q2 2026. — CBRE Australia.
  • CBD office transaction activity reached $2.0 billion in Q2; year-to-date volumes were 40% above the same period in 2025. — CBRE Australia.
  • Five of six monitored CBD office markets recorded positive net absorption in Q2 2026. — JLL Australia.
  • Brisbane CBD vacancy tightened to 10.6%, with prime vacancy at 7.7%. — JLL Australia.
  • Brisbane prime gross effective rents rose 8.3% over the 2025/26 financial year. — JLL Australia.

Industrial & logistics

Provides national leasing, rent and investment context for industrial property.

  • Gross industrial take-up reached 1.8 million sqm during the first half of 2026. — CBRE Australia.
  • Face rents were broadly resilient while higher incentives softened effective rents during Q2. — CBRE Australia.
  • Industrial investment activity had already surpassed the total transaction volume recorded during calendar 2025. — CBRE Australia.

Brisbane industrial

APRIQ Commercial's initial wedge is Brisbane/SEQ industrial, so this is directly relevant benchmark context.

  • Brisbane industrial gross take-up reached 198,000 sqm across 22 deals in Q2 2026. — JLL Australia.
  • Q2 industrial completions totalled 209,100 sqm, up 42.6% from Q1, with 92.2% absorption across newly delivered projects. — JLL Australia.
  • Prime Southern precinct net rents averaged $164/sqm/year and prime yield midpoint was 5.75%. — JLL Australia.

Brisbane office

Shows strong Brisbane office demand and rental pressure alongside the industrial wedge.

  • Brisbane CBD net absorption reached 21,000 sqm in Q2 2026. — JLL Australia.
  • Overall Brisbane CBD office vacancy was 10.6%, with prime vacancy 7.7% and secondary vacancy 14.9%. — JLL Australia.
  • Prime gross effective rents reached $574/sqm/year, up 9.8% year on year. — JLL Australia.

Melbourne office

Provides the counterpoint to Brisbane and shows why national averages conceal large city divergence.

  • Melbourne CBD vacancy rose to 20.5% in Q2 2026. — JLL Australia.
  • Melbourne CBD net absorption was negative 6,300 sqm for the quarter. — JLL Australia.
  • Only one office transaction above $5 million was recorded in the Melbourne CBD during Q2, for $55 million. — JLL Australia.

SEQ retail

Broadens Commercial beyond office and industrial and tracks capital allocation into Queensland retail.

  • Three neighbourhood retail completions added 15,800 sqm in SE Queensland during Q2. — JLL Australia.
  • Queensland core-sector retail investment volume was $1.068 billion for the quarter, outperforming industrial and office in JLL's measure. — JLL Australia.
  • Retail yields were unchanged across the tracked sub-sectors during Q2. — JLL Australia.

Funding conditions

Debt costs and required returns are direct inputs into commercial transaction pricing and development feasibility.

Captures the quarter-end interest-rate setting facing investors, developers and occupiers.

  • The Monetary Policy Board increased the cash rate target by 25 basis points to 4.35% on 5 May 2026. — Reserve Bank of Australia.
  • The May increase was the third cash-rate increase of 2026. — Reserve Bank of Australia.
  • The RBA left the cash rate target unchanged at 4.35% on 16 June 2026. — Reserve Bank of Australia.
  • The RBA said financial conditions had tightened following three cash-rate increases during 2026. — Reserve Bank of Australia.

Inflation

Inflation affects funding, construction costs, occupier margins and nominal rental growth.

  • Annual CPI inflation was 4.0% in May 2026. — Australian Bureau of Statistics.
  • Housing prices within the CPI basket were 6.5% higher than a year earlier. — Australian Bureau of Statistics.
  • Trimmed mean inflation was 3.6% over the year to May. — Australian Bureau of Statistics.

Post-quarter reporting on Q2

These reports were published after 30 June but explicitly measure the completed June quarter. APRIQ labels them separately so the retrospective can use the evidence without pretending it was available at quarter-end.

  • National CBD vacancy edged from 14.8% to 14.9% over the first half of 2026. — CBRE Australia.
  • Australian CBD prime effective rents rose 1.8% quarter on quarter and 7.2% year on year in Q2 2026. — CBRE Australia.
  • CBD office transaction activity reached $2.0 billion in Q2; year-to-date volumes were 40% above the same period in 2025. — CBRE Australia.
  • Gross industrial take-up reached 1.8 million sqm during the first half of 2026. — CBRE Australia.
  • Face rents were broadly resilient while higher incentives softened effective rents during Q2. — CBRE Australia.
  • Industrial investment activity had already surpassed the total transaction volume recorded during calendar 2025. — CBRE Australia.
  • Five of six monitored CBD office markets recorded positive net absorption in Q2 2026. — JLL Australia.
  • Brisbane CBD vacancy tightened to 10.6%, with prime vacancy at 7.7%. — JLL Australia.
  • Brisbane prime gross effective rents rose 8.3% over the 2025/26 financial year. — JLL Australia.
  • Brisbane industrial gross take-up reached 198,000 sqm across 22 deals in Q2 2026. — JLL Australia.
  • Q2 industrial completions totalled 209,100 sqm, up 42.6% from Q1, with 92.2% absorption across newly delivered projects. — JLL Australia.
  • Prime Southern precinct net rents averaged $164/sqm/year and prime yield midpoint was 5.75%. — JLL Australia.
  • Brisbane CBD net absorption reached 21,000 sqm in Q2 2026. — JLL Australia.
  • Overall Brisbane CBD office vacancy was 10.6%, with prime vacancy 7.7% and secondary vacancy 14.9%. — JLL Australia.
  • Prime gross effective rents reached $574/sqm/year, up 9.8% year on year. — JLL Australia.
  • Melbourne CBD vacancy rose to 20.5% in Q2 2026. — JLL Australia.
  • Melbourne CBD net absorption was negative 6,300 sqm for the quarter. — JLL Australia.
  • Only one office transaction above $5 million was recorded in the Melbourne CBD during Q2, for $55 million. — JLL Australia.
  • Three neighbourhood retail completions added 15,800 sqm in SE Queensland during Q2. — JLL Australia.
  • Queensland core-sector retail investment volume was $1.068 billion for the quarter, outperforming industrial and office in JLL's measure. — JLL Australia.
  • Retail yields were unchanged across the tracked sub-sectors during Q2. — JLL Australia.

Sources used for this retrospective

10 first-party or official evidence records contributed 28 concrete factual observations to this commercial review.

  • CBRE Australia: Australia CBD Office Figures Q2 2026 (6 August 2026). https://www.cbre.com.au/insights/figures/australia-cbd-office-figures-q2-2026
  • CBRE Australia: Australia Industrial and Logistics Figures Q2 2026 (13 July 2026). https://www.cbre.com.au/insights/figures/australia-industrial-and-logistics-figures-q2-2026
  • JLL Australia: Australian office markets showed resilience through Q2 (9 July 2026). https://www.jll.com/en-au/newsroom/australian-office-markets-showed-resilience-through-q2
  • JLL Australia: Brisbane Industrial Market Dynamics Q2 2026 (5 August 2026). https://www.jll.com/en-au/insights/market-dynamics/brisbane-industrial
  • JLL Australia: Brisbane Office Market Dynamics Q2 2026 (4 August 2026). https://www.jll.com/en-au/insights/market-dynamics/brisbane-office
  • JLL Australia: Melbourne Office Market Dynamics Q2 2026 (5 August 2026). https://www.jll.com/en-au/insights/market-dynamics/melbourne-office
  • JLL Australia: SE Queensland Retail Market Dynamics Q2 2026 (6 August 2026). https://www.jll.com/en-au/insights/market-dynamics/south-east-queensland-retail
  • Reserve Bank of Australia: RBA raised the cash rate to 4.35% (5 May 2026). https://www.rba.gov.au/media-releases/2026/mr-26-12.html
  • Reserve Bank of Australia: RBA held the cash rate at 4.35% (16 June 2026). https://www.rba.gov.au/media-releases/2026/mr-26-15.html
  • Australian Bureau of Statistics: May CPI remained above target (24 June 2026). https://www.abs.gov.au/statistics/economy/price-indexes-and-inflation/consumer-price-index-australia/may-2026

Market Forces context

No qualifying retained Market Forces contextual driver change is available for this commercial quarter yet. Commercial conclusions are not backfilled from residential-only evidence.

How this edition was built

Backfilled retrospective. Commercial transaction coverage is reported only where APRIQ held dated primary evidence. Historical editorial evidence pack: 10 source record(s), 28 fact(s), 4 publisher(s). Post-quarter Q2 reports are labelled separately from information available during the quarter.

Effective rents, rent-free periods and fit-out contributions are out of scope for APRIQ by the 1 September 2026 decision. Where commentary above mentions them it is quoted as published, attributed to its publisher, and is not an APRIQ figure or product.

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