Property market overview for this Victorian suburb.
This market is the suburb as the publisher names and groups it in its own release. The boundary is the publisher’s naming, not a boundary APRIQ drew and not an ABS or postal polygon.
Population grew −0.3% over the year to 30 June 2025, against +1.5% for Australia over the same period.
Net internal migration was the largest component of that change, as an outflow.
Dwelling approvals were +111.4% against the twelve months before. Approvals are permission to build, not completed dwellings.
Completions in the March quarter 2026 were equivalent to 91% of commencements, for Victoria. These figures compare pipeline flows and do not track individual approved dwellings through construction.
Achieved rents moved +16.2% over the year, against +4.6% for the middle suburb in Victoria.
These signals are shown separately so you can see what is driving the market. Explore them under Demand & supply below.
At $430 a week, Swan Hill is higher than 7% of the 146 VIC suburbs we hold.
Rents there are up 16.2% over the past year, faster than the typical VIC suburb (up 4.5%).
Based on 250 new leases, which is a large enough sample to be steady quarter to quarter.
In September quarter 2025, the median weekly rent rose 7.5% on the quarter before, from $400 to $430. Across the 102 quarterly changes held here, 1 was larger. The newest figure Victoria has published is September quarter 2025 — its publisher releases on a slower cycle than the other states, which is a fact about the publisher, not about this page's freshness.
Six signals show how demand, supply and rents are moving. Open Data & method on any signal for the figures, rule and source behind it.
The Australian Bureau of Statistics does not publish population for suburbs. What is shown is the figure for Swan Hill, the statistical area containing Swan Hill — it describes that wider area, not this suburb.
Weak
How fast the population is growing, against the national rate.
| Population growth, Swan Hill | −0.3% | the year to 30 June 2025 |
|---|---|---|
| Population growth, Australia | +1.5% | the year to 30 June 2025 |
Strong when growth is at least half a percentage point above the national rate, weak when at least half a point below, moderate in between. Population is one ABS instrument measured the same way everywhere, so a market compares to Australia.
Net internal migration (an outflow)
Which component moved the population most over the latest year the ABS splits it.
| Natural increase, Swan Hill | +73 | the year to 30 June 2025 |
|---|---|---|
| Net internal migration, Swan Hill | −153 | the year to 30 June 2025 |
| Net overseas migration, Swan Hill | +46 | the year to 30 June 2025 |
The largest of natural increase, net internal migration and net overseas migration by absolute size, so a large outflow is named rather than hidden inside a net total. This states which component was largest. It says nothing about why anyone moved.
Expanding
Whether dwelling approvals are running above or below the year before.
| Dwellings approved, Swan Hill | 93 | June quarter 2026 |
|---|---|---|
| The twelve months before, Swan Hill | 44 | a year earlier |
| Change on the year before, Swan Hill | +111.4% | June quarter 2026 |
Expanding above +10%, contracting below −10%, stable in between, comparing twelve months of approvals against the twelve before them. An approval is permission to build, not a dwelling. Where a market is smaller than the areas the Australian Bureau of Statistics counts approvals for, this is a blend of those areas' own changes, weighted by how much of each the market covers — not a count of approvals here.
Moderate
How much housing is being finished, against how much is being started.
| Dwellings completed, Victoria | 12,220 | March quarter 2026 |
|---|---|---|
| Dwellings started, Victoria | 13,437 | March quarter 2026 |
| Completions as a share of commencements | 91% | March quarter 2026 |
Strong at or above 95% of commencements, weak below 80%, moderate in between — completions in the quarter compared with commencements in the same quarter, both stated beside this rule. These figures compare pipeline flows and do not track individual approved dwellings through construction.
High
How fast achieved rents are rising, against the rest of the state.
| Rent change over a year, Swan Hill | +16.2% | the twelve months to September 2025 |
|---|---|---|
| Rent change over a year, the middle suburb in Victoria | +4.6% | the twelve months to September 2025 |
High when rents rose at least one percentage point faster than the state, low when at least a point slower, moderate in between. Compared against the state rather than the nation because each bond authority defines its own series: changes compare, levels do not.
Limited
How much of this market's picture was measured at this market's own geography.
| Demand evidence | measured for a larger area containing this market | how it was made |
|---|---|---|
| Components present | 5 of 5 | on this page |
Broad where the demand evidence was published for this geography and most components are present; partial where it was derived through an official ABS correspondence; limited where it describes a larger area containing this market, or where components are missing. This says nothing about how many observations sit behind any single figure — that is Sample strength, a separate reading.
A sale-price series APRIQ can publish is not currently available for this market. Current rent, demand and supply data remain available on this page.
Rising faster than most of Victoria
How rents here moved over a year, against the typical suburb in Victoria.
| Rent change over a year here | +16.2% | the twelve months to September 2025 against a year earlier |
|---|---|---|
| The middle suburb in Victoria | +4.6% | the twelve months to September 2025 against a year earlier |
| Difference | +11.6 percentage points | the twelve months to September 2025 against a year earlier |
| Markets in the comparison | 146 | the twelve months to September 2025 against a year earlier |
The difference between this market’s one-year rent change and the middle change across every suburb the same publisher reports, in percentage points: 3 or more above is well above, 1 above is above, within 1 either way is in line. Changes are compared within one state because each bond authority defines its own series — movement may be compared between them, the rent itself may not.
Moving annual median, being the median across every lease signed in the preceding twelve months, which is smoother than a quarterly figure and lags one. Every point is a figure the publisher published; nothing between them is filled in.
| Median weekly rent | $430 | publisher’s figure · the twelve months to September 2025 |
|---|
Quarter-by-quarter rent history for the full published series.
| Quarter | Median weekly rent | Change on the quarter before |
|---|---|---|
| September quarter 2025 | $430 | Up 7.5% |
| June quarter 2025 | $400 | No change |
| March quarter 2025 | $400 | Up 8.1% |
| December quarter 2024 | $370 | No change |
| September quarter 2024 | $370 | No change |
| June quarter 2024 | $370 | No change |
| March quarter 2024 | $370 | Up 5.7% |
| December quarter 2023 | $350 | Up 2.9% |
| September quarter 2023 | $340 | Up 6.3% |
| June quarter 2023 | $320 | No change |
| March quarter 2023 | $320 | Up 3.2% |
| December quarter 2022 | $310 | No change |
| September quarter 2022 | $310 | Up 3.3% |
| June quarter 2022 | $300 | No change |
| March quarter 2022 | $300 | No change |
| December quarter 2021 | $300 | No change |
| September quarter 2021 | $300 | No change |
| June quarter 2021 | $300 | Up 1.7% |
| March quarter 2021 | $295 | Up 5.4% |
| December quarter 2020 | $280 | No change |
| September quarter 2020 | $280 | Up 3.7% |
| June quarter 2020 | $270 | Up 3.8% |
| March quarter 2020 | $260 | No change |
| December quarter 2019 | $260 | No change |
| September quarter 2019 | $260 | No change |
| June quarter 2019 | $260 | No change |
| March quarter 2019 | $260 | Up 4.0% |
| December quarter 2018 | $250 | No change |
| September quarter 2018 | $250 | No change |
| June quarter 2018 | $250 | Up 2.0% |
| March quarter 2018 | $245 | No change |
| December quarter 2017 | $245 | Up 2.1% |
| September quarter 2017 | $240 | Down 2.0% |
| June quarter 2017 | $245 | No change |
| March quarter 2017 | $245 | Up 2.1% |
| December quarter 2016 | $240 | No change |
| September quarter 2016 | $240 | No change |
| June quarter 2016 | $240 | Up 4.3% |
| March quarter 2016 | $230 | No change |
| December quarter 2015 | $230 | No change |
| September quarter 2015 | $230 | Up 0.9% |
| June quarter 2015 | $228 | Up 1.3% |
| March quarter 2015 | $225 | No change |
| December quarter 2014 | $225 | No change |
| September quarter 2014 | $225 | Up 2.3% |
| June quarter 2014 | $220 | No change |
| March quarter 2014 | $220 | No change |
| December quarter 2013 | $220 | No change |
| September quarter 2013 | $220 | No change |
| June quarter 2013 | $220 | No change |
| March quarter 2013 | $220 | Up 2.3% |
| December quarter 2012 | $215 | No change |
| September quarter 2012 | $215 | No change |
| June quarter 2012 | $215 | Up 2.4% |
| March quarter 2012 | $210 | No change |
| December quarter 2011 | $210 | No change |
| September quarter 2011 | $210 | No change |
| June quarter 2011 | $210 | No change |
| March quarter 2011 | $210 | Up 2.4% |
| December quarter 2010 | $205 | Up 2.5% |
| September quarter 2010 | $200 | No change |
| June quarter 2010 | $200 | No change |
| March quarter 2010 | $200 | No change |
| December quarter 2009 | $200 | Up 2.6% |
| September quarter 2009 | $195 | Up 2.6% |
| June quarter 2009 | $190 | No change |
| March quarter 2009 | $190 | No change |
| December quarter 2008 | $190 | No change |
| September quarter 2008 | $190 | No change |
| June quarter 2008 | $190 | Up 5.6% |
| March quarter 2008 | $180 | No change |
| December quarter 2007 | $180 | No change |
| September quarter 2007 | $180 | Up 5.9% |
| June quarter 2007 | $170 | Down 2.9% |
| March quarter 2007 | $175 | Up 2.9% |
| December quarter 2006 | $170 | Up 3.0% |
| September quarter 2006 | $165 | No change |
| June quarter 2006 | $165 | No change |
| March quarter 2006 | $165 | Up 3.1% |
| December quarter 2005 | $160 | No change |
| September quarter 2005 | $160 | No change |
| June quarter 2005 | $160 | Up 3.2% |
| March quarter 2005 | $155 | Up 3.3% |
| December quarter 2004 | $150 | No change |
| September quarter 2004 | $150 | No change |
| June quarter 2004 | $150 | No change |
| March quarter 2004 | $150 | No change |
| December quarter 2003 | $150 | No change |
| September quarter 2003 | $150 | No change |
| June quarter 2003 | $150 | Up 3.4% |
| March quarter 2003 | $145 | No change |
| December quarter 2002 | $145 | Up 3.6% |
| September quarter 2002 | $140 | No change |
| June quarter 2002 | $140 | No change |
| March quarter 2002 | $140 | No change |
| December quarter 2001 | $140 | Up 3.7% |
| September quarter 2001 | $135 | Down 3.6% |
| June quarter 2001 | $140 | No change |
| March quarter 2001 | $140 | No change |
| December quarter 2000 | $140 | Up 3.7% |
| September quarter 2000 | $135 | No change |
| June quarter 2000 | $135 | Up 3.8% |
| March quarter 2000 | $130 | — |
There is no yield here because no current sale price exists to divide by — see Prices & Sales above for why.
Only New South Wales publishes rent quartiles, so the spread of rents within this market is not shown.
The suburbs immediately above and below Swan Hill when ranked by the same figure for the same period — nearby in the state ranking, not necessarily nearby on a map.
| Suburb | Median rent | Rent change — 1 year |
|---|---|---|
| Portland | $420 | Up 5.0% |
| Wangaratta | $420 | No change |
| Sebastopol-Delacombe | $430 | No change |
| Swan Hill | $430 | Up 16.2% |
| Wendouree-Alfredton | $440 | Up 2.3% |
| Benalla | $450 | Up 7.1% |
| Melton | $450 | No change |
Or put them in columns: Compare with similarly ranked markets.
Population data on suburb pages uses the ABS statistical area containing the suburb. The market card names that wider area; open Data & method for the geography and source.
Population is falling
How fast the population is changing in Swan Hill, the wider area this market sits inside, against how fast Australia is changing.
The Australian Bureau of Statistics does not publish population for suburbs. What is shown is the rate for Swan Hill, the statistical area containing Swan Hill — it describes that wider area, not this suburb.
| Annual population growth, Swan Hill | −0.3% | the year to 30 June 2025 |
|---|---|---|
| Australia, the same year | +1.5% | the year to 30 June 2025 |
| Difference | −1.9 percentage points | the year to 30 June 2025 |
| Growth a year over five years | −1.0% | the five years to 30 June 2025 |
The difference between this market’s annual population growth and Australia’s, in percentage points: 1.5 or more above is well above the national rate, 0.5 above is above it, within 0.5 either way is in line with it, and a fall is named as a fall. Both figures are ABS estimated resident population at 30 June, the same instrument measured the same way, so they may be compared directly.
Counted for Swan Hill on Census night, 10 August 2021. A Census count is a stock on one night, not a series: it cannot show a trend, and five years on it describes 2021, not today. It is here because how many households there are and how many people share a dwelling are the denominators every demand question eventually needs.
| Households — occupied private dwellings | 4,348 | one count: an occupied private dwelling on Census night is the ABS definition of a household |
|---|---|---|
| Average household size | 2.3 people | per occupied private dwelling, across 4,348 of them |
Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics, Census of Population and Housing 2021, General Community Profile (tables G02, G35, G36), used under CC BY 4.0. © Commonwealth of Australia (Australian Bureau of Statistics).
Approvals data on suburb pages uses the ABS statistical area containing the suburb. The market card names that wider area; open Data & method for the geography and source.
Approving about the national rate
How many dwellings Swan Hill — the wider area this market sits inside — approved over twelve months for every thousand residents, against the national rate. Approvals are permission to build, not completed dwellings.
The Australian Bureau of Statistics does not publish dwelling approvals for suburbs. What is shown is the rate for Swan Hill, the statistical area containing Swan Hill — it describes that wider area, not this suburb.
| Approved dwellings per 1,000 residents, Swan Hill | 8.7 | the twelve months to June 2026 |
|---|---|---|
| Australia, the same twelve months | 7.4 | the twelve months to June 2026 |
| Change on the twelve months before | +111.4% | the twelve months to June 2026 against the twelve months to June 2025 |
| People added per dwelling approved | -0.8 | the year to 30 June 2025 |
This market’s approved dwellings per thousand residents divided by Australia’s: twice the national rate or more is well above it, a quarter above is above it, within a fifth either way is in line, and below four fifths is below. Both are ABS building approvals over the same twelve months. An approval is permission to build — some of it lapses, and the rest completes months or years later — so this describes a pipeline and never housing that exists.
Counted for Swan Hill on Census night, 10 August 2021. The stock every approval above eventually adds to, as it stood on one night in 2021. The occupied count is the households figure under Demand — the ABS definition makes them one count, so it is printed once rather than twice. The occupied and unoccupied counts are separately rounded by the ABS and do not exactly sum to the total, so no missing figure is derived here.
| Private dwellings | 4,762 | all private dwellings on Census night |
|---|---|---|
| Unoccupied on Census night | 417 | holiday homes and empty dwellings included; not a rental vacancy rate |
Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics, Census of Population and Housing 2021, General Community Profile (tables G02, G35, G36), used under CC BY 4.0. © Commonwealth of Australia (Australian Bureau of Statistics).
No APRIQ forward rent forecast is published for Swan Hill yet. The forecasting model remains in historical backtesting.
The method’s public record so far, across every market at once and clearly a backtest, not a prediction: at 1 quarter ahead, 83.8% of 10,476 graded backtests landed inside their ranges, at a median width of ±7.9%.
See the full historical record on the forecast scorecard. Backtest results describe historical model performance, not a prediction for this market.
Check sample size, data period, geography, source and calculation rules for this market.
Strong
How many observations sit behind the current figure on this page.
| New leases behind the current figure | 250 | the twelve months to September 2025 |
|---|---|---|
| Quarters of history | 103 | to the twelve months to September 2025 |
| How current | 3 quarters behind the newest any state has published | the twelve months to September 2025 |
| Origin | As the publisher published it | the twelve months to September 2025 |
| Knowability | Dated by the end of its reference period, because no release date is recorded | the twelve months to September 2025 |
Strong needs 200 or more new leases behind the current figure; moderate needs 50. Fewer than that reads as thin: one unusual property can move the figure. A withheld count cannot earn better than thin, because a suppressed number is unknown rather than small. How current the figure is, is a separate fact stated as dates beside this reading, never folded into this word.
Which period the current rent figure describes, how it sits against the newest quarter published anywhere, and whose clock dated it — as dates, because a graded word would hide exactly the part worth checking.
| Describes | the twelve months to September 2025 |
|---|---|
| Standing | This sits 3 quarters behind the newest any state has published — a fact about the publisher’s release cycle, not about this market. |
| Dated by | Dated by the end of its reference period, because no release date is recorded. |
Market data sources are named beside the figures above. APRIQ keeps the publication period, source, licence and calculation method available for inspection. See full sources & methodology →
